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Adedigba, A A (2022) Towards integrated sustainable solid waste management in Nigerian cities, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Aggiag, M A A (2005) The impact of client attributes on project success: a study of UK public construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Alhiddi, A M (2022) Building better together: the relationship between organisational culture and stakeholder critical success factors in construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Alnasseri, N (2015) Managing and controlling airport construction projects: a strategic management framework for operators, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Alqarni, M (2017) Developing a framework to improve the implementation of geospatial technology in the planning and delivery of infrastructure for residential areas in Saudi Arabia: a case study of Riyadh city, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Ayman Anwar, R (2022) Enhancing the integration of sustainability assessment within dynamic BIM enabled design projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Babatunde, S (2015) Developing public private partnership strategy for infrastructure delivery in Nigeria, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Bouazza, T (2019) The design of healthcare facilities: knowledge, methods and effectiveness, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Chen, X (2019) Developing a third party investment partnership framework to encourage low carbon building projects in China, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Chiponde, D B (2023) Learning from project-related failures in UK construction project based organisations: an examination of actor approaches, intentions and behaviours, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Doherty, M M (2022) Exploring the expansion of planners' engagement capabilities via accessing the data from a building information model for public consultation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Gledson, B J (2017) Innovation diffusion within the UK construction sector: a study of the adoption of 4D BIM, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Faculty of Engineering and Envionment, Northumbria University.
Guo, S (2012) Pedagogical design in built environment distance education: A critical appraisal of students' learning strategies at postgraduate level, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Hope, A (2011) Greener homes for the future?: sustainability in PFI local authority social housing, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Li, J J (2023) A socio-technical framework to guide implementation and value realisation of distributed ledger technologies (DLT) in the construction sector, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Maduka, N S (2017) The role of knowledge management in assisting key stakeholders in making informed decisions in delivering sustainable retrofitted building projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Ojiako, U (2005) Project failures: a comparative study of information and communication technologies (ICT)and construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Onalaja, A A (2023) Improving costing in infrastructure projects to accommodate uncertainties, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: cost overrun; contingency; cost estimating; infrastructure; control; project delivery; risk management; client; UK; cost information; regression model; case study; construction project; infrastructure project; professional; subcontractor; interview
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/51614/
- Abstract:
Determining a reliable estimate for a construction project based on scant information during the early stage is quite challenging. It is all too usual to make incorrect estimates based on vague client needs and desires. Early cost estimate reliability is vital to the success of construction project delivery. It is widely acknowledged that one of the major factors affecting a country's economy growing is the presence of adequate social and economic infrastructure. Construction projects delivery management team therefore needs adequate and robust improvement in cost estimation at the early stage. There is need for holistic view of how the present-day project control and management professionals manage and deliver infrastructure projects to make it viable economically. Early cost estimation used in providing key decision in financing these infrastructure projects are known to be flawed due to inadequate information. This is followed by the worry that industry mandated risk management principles are ineffective in managing uncertainty, especially in complex project environments. Construction projects therefore have routinely overrun their estimates. The research identified that there is no unanimity on the reference point from which contingency estimate is produced at the early stage. Another identified problem is that there is insufficient uncertainty management during the early stage of the project. This thesis advocates the use of system thinking in identifying uncertainty factors during the early stage of project to improve cost estimate. A mixed method approach was used to fulfil the objectives of the study. Initially, semi-structure interviews were conducted to identify uncertainty factors that impact early project cost estimate and the importance of using system thinking in identifying them. Twenty respondents were selected from UK project control and management professionals involved in infrastructure project delivery. 300 questionnaires were distributed to professionals in the UK infrastructure project industry, including client, contractors, and subcontractors and 76 respondents were received. A snow-balling sample technique was used to gather the respective respondents. Their responses were analysed using statistical techniques, and some of the results served as input for the regression model produced in establishing relationship amongst system thinking, need for cognition scale scores and years of experience. Another quantitative study was done using secondary data (cost information) obtained from 31 infrastructure projects in the UK. These costs date was analysed using Generalized linear model and Bayesian hierarchical regression Model to produce 12 predictive models that estimate cost overrun and final cost of a given infrastructure project during the early stage.6 case-study firms were used for the validation The models produced take cognisant of project level random effects to account for uncertainties in parameter estimation which reduces the level of biases in the models. Parameter estimation is based on Markov chain monte carlo (MCMC) algorithms implemented within the stan framework. Models were assessed for convergence and goodness of fit using a constellation of model diagnostics and fit indices. The findings from all the analysis showed that the covariates are independent of the project level random effects and there is inadequate uncertainty management at the early stage. Additionally, the year of experience is independent of the system thinking and need for cognition scale scores. High system thinking scale scores will enable project control and management professionals practice holism efficiently during project cost estimation process at the early stage. The predictive cost estimating model would estimate the final cost and cost overrun of an infrastructure project at the early stage which will be useful in producing an effective Should cost model (SCM) for UK project delivery team. If utilized properly, could be used at the output definition and feasibility stage (GRIP framework) to inform the first business case (strategic outline case for project departments).
Osborne, A N (2005) Social conflict in construction-related inter-organizational collectives: A comparative analysis and structural equation model, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Parry, A (2015) The improvement of delay analysis in the UK construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the t Environment, Northumbria University.
Pearson, J (2014) Effective employer engagement in full time construction-related foundation degrees, with particular emphasis on workplace learning, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Ponton, H (2021) Social interactions in construction design team meetings, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Rodrigo, V (2016) Development of an e-business capability maturity model for construction organisations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Ruan, X (2007) Inter-organizational Knowledge Integration on Construction Projects: a Social Network Approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Sharma, M (2014) Architectural design quality in local authority private finance initiative sheltered housing projects: the development of an evaluation tool, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment , Northumbria University.
Vasenin, M (2022) A data-driven approach to green investments: environmental performance, mispricing, and momentum, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Victoria, M (2017) Developing decision support models for early stage embodied carbon management in buildings, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.
Wu, S (2010) The impact of collaborative working on construction project performance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Northumbria University.
Zhao, J (2022) Rethinking value for money in Public Private Partnerships: a critique, analysis and model for transport infrastructure projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Northumbria University.